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Were global economists wrong again about COVID-19 recovery? IMF World Economic Studies chief tells us what to expect Updated: 2020-09-23 05:57:53 KST

Half a year has gone by since the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. Since then, it's disrupted everyday life, industries and whole economies.
Hopes of a V-shaped recovery have long been dashed and it looks like we're in for a long period of uncertainty on when we can resume business as usual.
Today we speak with Dr. Malhar Nabar, Division Chief of the World Economic Studies Division in the IMF's Research Department.
Thank you for joining us from Washington, D.C. today. How are you?

1.
You forecasted a 5.eight percent growth in world GDP next year. Which regions or economies do see faring better relative to others, and which will be the slowest to recover?

2.
But this is assuming that the pandemic subsides in the second half of this year. So around now. But the numbers of cases and deaths are still climbing. Are you preparing to downgrade your projection?

3.
South Korea appears to have fared better in terms of GDP growth in most projections. What factors do you think helped its relative resilience? What would you say are risk factors?

4.
It appears there's little we can do to stop the pandemic at the moment. How can we build resilient economies for the future, in the meantime? What are some long-term adjustments that countries will have to make?

5.
Economists and policy experts appear to be divided over the lockdown versus economy dilemma. Economists like Paul Krugman have criticized the lifting of lockdowns amid the ongoing pandemic. From observing countries around the world and their pandemic response measures, what is your view?


6.
What other risk factors are there to global recovery other than the pandemic? Will the continued trade war between the U.S. and China and Brexit slow down growth?


7.
The IMF has received criticism in the past from some experts for imposing a one-size-fits- all lending scheme to developing countries. What are ways that the IMF could make tailored support for countries?


8.
When do you see recovery happening?

Malhar Nabar, Division Chief of the World Economic Studies Division in the IMF's Research Department.


Reporter : osy@arirang.com
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