Economic recovery in Covid-19: Global economy & S. Korea
Updated: 2020-08-03 17:06:03 KST
Report cards on the massive economic toll of the coronavirus were issued in the U.S. and Europe last week and they were downright abysmal.
The U.S., Germany, France, Spain and Italy all registered the sharpest declines in gross domestic product on record and while economies have reopened from mandated lockdowns, the pandemic continues to complicate a recovery.
"Markets were pretty much expecting a disastrous number, and they got it. () We all know that shutting down the economy was going to lead to a very, very sharp contraction in GDP. But there's also evidence of a sharp rebound as well. So, the initial response of people in terms of panicking over the second quarter was replaced by, I think, too optimistic an outlook for this pace of the recovery. That doesn't mean the economy's back to the level it was prior to the shutdown, but it does mean that the bulk of the deterioration will be behind us within a one year period of time."
Economic recovery in the era of post-Covid-19. It's the topic of our News In-depth.
Joining us live in the studio is Dr. Shin Sang-hyup, Professor of Economics at the Graduate School of International Studies at Kyung Hee University.
First of all, let's talk about the U.S. growth figures released last week. The damage done already has been substantial. It pointed to the highest recorded decline in activity in the world's largest economy. At the same time, the 32.9 percent annualized fall in national income does not mean a third of the world's largest economy has disappeared, does it?
There are differing viewpoints on whether it's the cause or the result of the economic contraction, but the U.S. economy and job numbers definitely appear related. U.S. jobless claims have also been on the rise?
Amidst all this, familiar fault lines continue to separate the White House and congressional Democrats on the next coronavirus stimulus package.
Will the failure to deliver economic stimulus impact the U.S. economy? By how much?
Meanwhile, another key factor to the global economy is the U.S., China tension.
The latest is President Trump saying he may ban TikTok app, the popular short-form video app in the U.S., followed by Microsoft saying it's still discussing a potential purchase of TikTok.
Is there a chance of this becoming the second case of Huawei?
South Korea's economy declined 3.3 percent on-year during the second quarter, but it ranks second in terms of gross domestic product growth rate among members of the OECD because global economic performance overall was abysmal.
Would it be fair to say, however, that South Korea did not manage to fare better than other economies as it did not go into a complete lockdown?
July's import and export numbers for South Korea weren't all that bad. There are some cautious analyses that the economy has bottomed out. What are your thoughts?
Leading indicators all showed improvements - factory output, private consumption and corporate investments - for the first time in six months. Is economic recovery picking up speed?
What's your forecast for the global economy for the second half of the year and prescription for the South Korean economy?
Dr. Shin Sang-hyup, Professor of Economics at Kyung Hee University, many thanks for your insights this evening. We appreciate it.